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Ahead of the Storm: Implications of Changing Parameters in U.S. Tropical Cyclone Likelihood and Damage Estimation Models in the Face of Global Climate Change
Date
2015Type
ThesisDepartment
Mathematics and Statistics
Degree Level
Honors Thesis
Degree Name
Mathematics
Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports tropical cyclones
have been occurring with increasing intensity as a result of global climate change. We examine these projections using stochastic modeling of tropical cyclone frequency and
damages over two time periods in the United States. We fit Poisson models to U.S.
tropical cyclone frequency data from a pre-climate change era to a post-climate change
era and test equality of the Poisson rate parameters from each period to analyze changes
in tropical cyclone frequency. We fit lognormal models to damages per storm (adjusted
for inflation, population, and wealth) for both time periods. We test the equality of
parameters ? and ? over the two time periods to evaluate changes in intensity and
volatility of U.S. tropical cyclones. We found significant changes in tropical cyclone
behavior between the two time periods with the onset of global climate change.
Permanent link
http://hdl.handle.net/11714/565Additional Information
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