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Quarterback Value Forecasting and Fixing the NFL Draft's Market Failure
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The National Football League (NFL) is a business that is worth nearly $7 billion annually in revenue. That makes it the largest money making sport in the United States. The revenue earned by each franchise is dependent upon the repeated success of the team. A commonly held belief is that for a franchise to be successful you must have an elite Quarterback. This thesis uses NFL data and for the 2000-2008 seasons to determine the role that Quarterback performance plays in team success. With the determination that Quarterbacks are important to NFL team success the question becomes how does a franchise effectively obtain the best player. The NFL player draft is the most commonly used method for teams to find their Quarterback of the future. The problem is that the success rate for drafting Quarterbacks is very low. In this thesis I have determined a more statistical approach to determining whether a drafted Quarterback will be successful. The model shows that certain college statistics, such a passing completion percentage, are strong indicators of professional success at the Quarterback position. Use of the data may aid teams in effectively drafting Quarterbacks, thereby improving team winning percentage and profitability.