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Application of High-Speed Rail Urban Growth Scenarios, using the UPlan Urban Growth Model in Victorville, California
AuthorCasserly, Dakota Blue
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Changes in land-use patterns surrounding a high-speed rail (HSR) station in Victorville, CA, are modeled using UPlan, a geographic information system (GIS) based urban growth model. UPlan is meant to provide a basic platform for modeling future growth to show what future growth patterns `might' look like. Using demographic projections, land-use data, and foreign (France, Germany, and Japan) examples of HSR related growth it is possible to develop and display potential future (2010-2030) growth scenarios in residential and commercial land-uses. Also, a trend scenario was developed with results from calibrating (1990-2008) UPlan for comparison with the HSR scenarios. The city of Victorville's general plan map and Desert Gateway HSR specific plan map are used to guide future growth for the trend and HSR scenarios respectively. Surprisingly the HSR specific plan allocates approximately the same amount of low-density land-use as the trend. This is contrary to popular belief that future HSR related growth will result in a greater emphasis on higher-density land-use. Presently, Victorville's low-density land-use trend of growth has almost ceased. However, a potential HSR route connecting the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region to Las Vegas, NV, with a station in Victorville, could revive the struggling city. Overall, this study adds to the ongoing research concerning the relationship between transportation infrastructure and land-use patterns.