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Three Essays on Financial Crises
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Abstracts: Chapter 1 - The effect of early and salient investment experiences on subsequent asset allocations: An experimental studyIn this paper I examine the effect of early and salient experiences on asset allocation decisions using two experiments, and a third one as a robustness check. The first experiment assesses the impact of salient and early risky asset returns on subsequent investment decisions. The findings of the study show that subjects that experience a market bust early in the investment lifecycle invest less in risky assets compared to subjects that experience market booms, even when the asset return stream is identical over a twenty year investment period. In the second experiment I tried to isolate the saliency from the early timing of the boom and the bust effect, in order to examine which of the two matters the most. The results indicate that the “size” of a bust matters more than its timing. Results from the third experiment confirm the findings in experiments one and two.Chapter 2 - Revisiting the Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1927-1933Did a speculative bubble cause the stock market crash of 1929? I study the price dynamics of 26 publicly traded companies in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during the years 1927-1933 using daily data from the Wharton Research Data Service (WRDS) database and find evidence in support of a speculative bubble. Furthermore, evidence of high volatility in the volume of shares traded for these 26 companies strongly reinforces the hypothesis of a speculative bubble, as the standard deviation of the cyclical component of the number of shares traded increased significantly during the boom period and declined sharply after the crash. The transmission of price shocks took place from the prices of innovative companies to the prices of traditional companies. Companies in traditional sectors had their price peaks last, and were followers, suggesting financial contagion. These results are in line with the Kindleberger-Minsky hypothesis of technological displacement.Chapter 3 - A time series analysis on the endogeneity of financial cycles in five advanced countries: U.S., Germany, U.K., Japan, and FranceThe purpose of this study is to examine the connections between credit booms and asset price booms, in the U.S., Germany, U.K., Japan, and France with the use of the dataset assembled by (Schularick & Taylor, 2012). According to Minsky, and as explained by (Kindleberger & Aliber, 2011), financial booms may begin due to a technological displacement, that causes stock prices to be totally reassessed. The increase in the price of stocks causes credit to expand and the credit expansion further increases stock prices, leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy. We provide evidence in favor to Minsky’s hypothesis, something that contradicts the findings of (Schularick & Taylor, 2012) .