A statistical analysis of hydrologic drought in the Humboldt Basin, Nevada

Abstract

The central question addressed by this thesis concerns the randomness of Humboldt Basin precipitation and stream- flow data during drought periods, both in terms of cyclical behavior and in terms of clusters of wet and dry years. If the data is not random, but systematic, then the study of past droughts may provide insights which can help man to anticipate future droughts and their durations. If the data is random, then an analysis of the statistics of past droughts can help man to gauge the precipitation and stream- flow extremes which can reasonably be expected to occur within given time frames, but cannot provide insight into their timing. This study will also make estimates of extremes to be expected and the probable recurrence intervals of these extremes. On a limited basis, it will attempt to assess the impact of such extremes on agricultural production along the Humboldt River.